Driver mistakes happen at zone transitions and scale with consistency, tire temperature, mental pressure, and engine map. The mistake system has four severity tiers: Lockup, Wheelspin, Spin, Crash.
This page will document the full mistake probability formula, the threshold tiers, the post-mistake “Caution” multiplier, and how driver traits will shift the curve once they land.
For the short version now, see the Glossary entries for Big mistake, Lockup, Mistake caution, and the Engine Map page (Mistake amplification section).